The Great Conjunctions of 2020 corresponded with arguably the most turbulent year in U.S. stock market history.
Recap OF 2020
The low on March 23 was significant because it was right in the middle of the period when Mars conjoined Jupiter, Pluto, and Saturn in Capricorn, March 20–31, a very rare cosmic phenomenon. During the week that ended March 20, 2020, the DJIA fell over 4000 points, its largest weekly loss on record.
Then, to everyone’s surprise, a massive reversal took place. All three indices rallied to new all-times. The NASDAQ’s new high came first, in early June, less than three months after its low. The S&P followed in late August. Finally, the DJIA took out its February high on November 9, 2020. All the losses — and more — had been recovered. As this is being written in mid-November 2020, the DJIA is testing 30,000, a gain of nearly 65% in less than eight months. It has been a stunning turnaround, unlike anything ever seen in a single year. Then again, nothing quite like the Great Conjunctions of 2020 had been experienced since the early 1880s. It was a rare cosmic configuration. In turn, it was also a rare and unprecedented year of stock market turbulence, once again demonstrating the correlation between cycles in the cosmos and cycles in human activity.
LONG-TERM PLANETARY CYCLES
Let’s begin this year’s stock market analysis with an overview of the long-term planetary cycles that will be operative in 2021. The two most important are the 20-year Jupiter/Saturn conjunction of December 21, 2020, and the three-passage series of the Saturn/Uranus waning square of February–December 2021.
1.The Jupiter/Saturn conjunction is a single passage event this time. Since the stock market is making new all-time highs as this is being written in November 2020, the Jupiter/Saturn synodic cycle projects a crest no later than September 2021, and most likely by May 2021.
We would also like to point out that there was also a Jupiter/Saturn conjunction on May 28, 2000. That was also a single passage event. It too correlated with a long-term cycle crest in the DJIA four months earlier, and in the NASDAQ, two months earlier. More importantly, it occurred near another quarter cycle of the Saturn/Uranus cycle, the three-passage series of the waxing square of July 1999–May 13, 2000. That too correlated with a crest — the all- time high of January 14, 2000 — that was followed by the dot-com bubble burst in which the DJIA lost 39.7% of its value by the time it bottomed in October 2002, and the NASDAQ dropped 80%.
The 2020–2021 instance will be the inverse of the 1999–2000 setup.
As we enter this time band of +/- 5 months from the Jupiter/Saturn conjunction (July 2020–May 2021), the stock market is again making a new all-time high.
2. Now let’s consider the Saturn/Uranus waning square of February 17–December 24, 2021. This is the next quarter phase of the 45-year Saturn/Uranus cycle. This will only be the 6th time it has occurred in the history of the U.S. stock market.
The two largest declines in the history of the U.S. stock market happened during the alternating Saturn/Uranus waning square periods: 1839–1840 (the middle of the 80% decline from the crest to the trough of 1835- 1842) and 1930–1931 (90% decline from crest to trough, September 1929–July 1932). In both cases, the crest happened before the aspect began. In both cases, the bottom wasn’t until at least 1–2 years after the aspect ended. This gives rise to the possibility there may be a 90-year cycle in U.S. stocks. If so, the Saturn/Uranus waning square is the only long- term geocosmic signature present in each instance. And it is due again in 2021.
Putting these two long-term planetary cycles together (and they are the only two longer-term planetary aspects in effect in 2021) serves as an alert. The all-time high in the U.S. stock market could be completed by September 2021, and if so, most likely by May 2021. A 1–3 year plunge would then follow according to the limited history of these two planetary cycles.
THE JUPITER EFFECT
Another geocosmic cycle to consider is the 12-year transit of Jupiter through the signs. It spends approximately one year in each sign in its 12-year orbit around the Sun.
The previous studies have shown that intermediate or long-term cycle crests occur when Jupiter transits between 15° Sagittarius and 20° Capricorn. Based on this, an important cycle crest was due January 14, 2019 – October 31, 2020. As we look back, we see this corresponded to the 4-year cycle crest in February 2020. Jupiter was posited at 15 – 17° on February 12 – 20, 2020, when the highs occurred.
These studies also revealed that lows related to Jupiter’s sign position were more significant than highs. In 9 of the ten previous instances, long-term cycle lows occurred when Jupiter transited between 0° Aquarius through 24° Pisces, and 8 occurred when Jupiter transited 14° Aquarius through 24° Pisces. Jupiter will be in this sector of the signs again in February 2021 – April 2022.
In 2021 indicate a sharp sell-off at some point to begin by October 2021, and more likely by May 2021, lasting into late 2021 through early 2022, and possibly continuing as late as August 2023.
LONG-TERM CYCLES IN U.S. STOCKS
The geocosmic cycles clearly point to another long-term cycle crest by October 2021, and most likely by May 2021.
If you are an investor, your focus is on the long-term cycles in the stock market. You are what is known as a “buy and hold” owner of equities. However, you still have the challenge of figuring out when to buy. Knowing when long-term cycle troughs in the stock market are due can aid greatly to one’s long-term profits.
Generally speaking, the idea is to buy an 18-year cycle low and its 4- and 6.5-year cycle phases and just hold these positions. That is known as the “core” position. You don’t want to exit your “core” positions unless something fundamental has changed drastically.
Until then, you only look to buy on corrective declines into other important cycle troughs. And you adopt this strategy because it is a fact that the U.S. stock market has appreciated over every ten-year period since the Great Depression low of 1932. That is, if you had bought a basket of stocks that tracked the performance of the DJIA or S&P at any time since mid-1932, the value of the index was always higher 10 years later. Thus, there is value in being a “buy and hold” investor. But even that performance can be improved if one time their purchases during the lows of the 18-year cycle and its phases.
We refer to the 18-year cycle in stock prices because that is the common denominator for the very long-term 90-, 72- and 36-year cycles.
We do not really know if there is a 90- year cycle yet, because there have only been two instances in the history of the New York Stock Exchange dating back to its founding in 1792. In both cases, the stock market declined by over 80%. Looking at other financial markets over the last 200 years, we note that very long-term cycles usually witness a 77–93% decline in value from their crests to these lows. If there is a 90-year cycle in U.S. stocks, it is due again within the next 15 years (all cycles have an orb equal to 1/6 of its mean length). The Saturn/Uranus cycle indicates it could even happen in the next three years.
The 90-year cycle: It last unfolded in July 1932. It is next due in 2022, or any time between 2021–2037 and, more specifically, before 2032. It is late in the cycle, and thus a top is due. Investors are advised to prepare for a buying opportunity on a 77–93% decline.
The 18-year cycle:
The last 18-year cycle also bottomed with the “Great Recession” low of March 9, 2009. This coincided with the Saturn/Uranus opposition (November 2008–July 26, 2010).
One will take place in a 3-passage series from February–December 2021. It will be the first Saturn/Uranus quarter cycle since the opposition of 2008–2010, and the second since the dot-com bubble burst of 2000, leading to the recession low of October 2002.
The 18-year cycle trough has a normal range of 15–21 years. Measured from the low of March 2009, it is next due in 2027 +/- 3 years.
There are two historical instances when the 18-year contracted to only 13 years, which would equate to 2022. We need to be aware of this possibility again since the low of March 2009 was the longest 18-year cycle on record, lasting 21 years, 5 months. When a cycle occurs very early or late in its normal periodicity, the next cycle will often do the opposite. The low of 2009 was long, and therefore the next instance may be on the shorter side. Additionally, 2022 corresponds with the time band related to the downside of the Saturn/Uranus waning square cycle. It is also the major geocosmic aspect present in a potential 90-year cycle as described earlier (1842, 1932, and maybe 2022 +/- 1 year). Unfortunately, there are only two historical points from which we can draw. But every eventual cycle has to start somewhere.
THE “PHASES” OF THE 18-YEAR CYCLE
An 18-year cycle is either comprised of two 9-year cycles with a range of 7- 11 years, or three 6-year cycles with a range of 5–8 years (more like a 6.5-year cycle), or both.
It also means that 2021 is the first year of both the 6- and 9-year cycles. The first stage of all cycles is bullish. This represents a conflict with the preferred outlook suggested by the long-term planetary cycles, which calls for a long-term cycle crest by September and probably by May 2021.
Allowing a 2% range for a double top would put the DJIA at 30,160. Above there, the DJIA has an upside price target of 32,487 +/- 3070 and 32,411 +/- 2010 for its second half- year cycle crest. But once that crest is in, an even sharper decline is due into the 18-year cycle trough, scheduled for 2027–2031, unless it is due to bottom in the third and final 6- year cycle. Measured from March 2020, that final 6-year cycle trough is due 2025–2028. It is interesting to note they overlap 2027–2028, which is also when the Lunar Nodal cycle low is due for the economy and stock market is due (2026–2029).
THE 4-YEAR STOCK MARKET CYCLE
Historically, all 4-year cycles have bottomed in a range of 31–68 months, with 81.8% occurring in the range of 36–56 months, thus making it actually a 46-month cycle with a 10-month orb. It is therefore due next in January 2024 +/- 10 months (March 2023– November 2024). In over 90% of cases, the rally from the start of the cycle to its crest lasted at least 12 months, and usually 12–49 months. Thus, there is a less than a 10% historical rate of frequency indicating this current market will peak before March 2021. This also challenges the Jupiter/Saturn synodic cycle that calls for a crest before the end of May 2021. An ideal time for a crest combining these two studies would be March–May 2021. It’s a very narrow time window for a 4-year cycle crest, but it is possible.
There is an 80+% probability the DJIA will appreciate at least 50% off the low that started the cycle. That has already been achieved in the current case since a 50% appreciation above the 18,213 low of March 23, 2020, would be 27,320. The majority of these rallies will show an increase of 70–189%. This range would yield a DJIA 4-year cycle crest of 30,962–52,635. The average appreciation is 103.9%, or in this case, 37,136.
THE 50-WEEK CYCLE
The start of the current 50-week cycle also began with the longer-term cycle lows of March 23, 2020. Thus, it is due to bottom next within 12 weeks of March 8, 2021 (December 14, 2020–June 4, 2021), although this could distort and occur as late as July 9, 2021.
Rallies to the crest of bullish 50-week cycles usually last 30–52 weeks, which means in the current case, the crest is due any time before March 26, 2021. Our attention will be focused on March 2021, for that is a month that stands out with many of these studies as a possible crest.
GEOCOSMICS PART TWO
Long-term cycle crests in U.S. stock indices tend to top out when the Moon’s North Node transits from 21° Leo through 2° Aries. This occurs October 2017–December 2024.
It happens most often when the Node transits 28° Gemini through 14° Taurus, which takes place May 2020–September 2022.” Once again, geocosmic studies point to the possibility of an important crest even by May 2021.
With Saturn square Uranus in 2021, the U.S. stock market could be in store for wild price swings. Along with the Jupiter/Saturn conjunction on December 21, 2020, these two signatures point to a cycle crest of importance sometime by September, and ideally by May 2021. But what type of cycle crest?
The majority of the longer-term cycles are in their bullish phase. The low of March 23, 2020, was a 4-year cycle trough, and very possibly a 6-year and 9-year cycle low too. Those cycles’ lows are not due in 2021, and not even until at least the latter half of 2022. They are not expected to top out this early in their new cycles.
There are reasons to support a continuation of the bull market off the lows of March 2020. For one, our studies on pandemics indicate the nation may get COVID-19 under control with the development and distribution of new vaccines and treatments by spring– summer 2021. The threat of lockdowns and social distancing may very well end by then, and that will support economic growth and employment. Second, the Federal Reserve has stated they will continue monetary stimulus efforts to support the economy by making purchases in both the bond and security markets. This will help buttress any serious threat to the stock market. There is also talk of further fiscal stimulus relief aid for those businesses and individuals who have suffered financial losses due to the pandemic. More liquidity will also fuel rallies in equity prices.
However, with Saturn square Uranus, there is a possibility of a “Black Swan,” a sudden and unexpected event that turns the world and its economies on its heels. With Uranus and “Black Swans,” you never know ahead of time what the event is. We can speculate that it could be something dramatic and/or traumatic affecting the leadership of the U.S., given the hard Pluto aspects to the Moon/Pluto conjunction in the U.S. founding chart. It could pertain to civil unrest growing into an extreme existential crisis that undermines the nation’s security.
With Pluto involved, it could relate to policy measures, such as an abundance of new taxes (business and individual) and onerous regulations that force businesses to cut back their expenses or depress the urge to hire new people and invest in research and other growth activities. If the new administration treats the business community as immoral, corrupt, and destructive to the well-being of the nation whose evil activities must be reined in, as they have charged during the 2020 election campaigns, then Pluto’s nature may slowly suck the vitality out of those in business. It would be just a matter of time before the business community — and treasury revenues it provides — shrink. Combined with massive new spending programs, this could also result in another issue related to Pluto: a massive increase in the national debt. The Dollar could plunge as other nations lose trust in the nation’s ability to pay its debts much longer.
Also, these are possibilities that could result in a sudden downturn in the stock market that begins near the Saturn/Uranus square, as it has coincided with the two previous instances of a 90-year stock market cycle (1842, 1932). If that is the track the economy, government, and the stock market take, then it is possible the high that forms before October 2021 might be a super- long all-time cycle crest. The market could enter a sharp bear market that won’t end before 2022–2023. That is not my bias, but it is a possibility.
The next sign of potential trouble for the bull market in the U.S. stock market will happen if and when the DJIA takes out support at 25,000–26,000. The 23- and 36-month moving average also offer support to the bullish trend. Until then, our advice for investors is to stay with bullish strategies. That is, buy corrective declines (even if sharp) into the 50- week and 16.5-month cycle lows due in 2021. Each is expected to be at least a 10% decline. The 50-week cycle low is due within 12 weeks of March 8, 2021. The 16.5-month cycle low is due within three months of March–April 2021. These will be the first instance of both cycles within the greater 4-year cycle, so these declines may happen fast from a crest that precedes them by only 1–3 months. For example, we expect a crest before the end of May 2021 based on the Jupiter/Saturn cycle. A 10+% decline from that crest can happen quickly, creating a mini-panic in the trading community. But as long as the DJIA does not fall below 25,000–26,000, it is probably a buying opportunity. If it does break below 25,000, then the selloff could gain momentum and turn ugly during Saturn square Uranus.
THREE-STAR CRITICAL REVERSAL DATES FOR 2021 — STOCK MARKET
Dec 28, 2020 Jan 15–18, 2021
Jan 29–Feb 1 (this may be just volatile and not a market cycle reversal)
July 2 (may need 1-week orb; June 23 & July 9 also highlighted) Aug 4–5
Oct 15–18 (may need 1-week orb; also watch Sep 26–27 and Oct 27–28) Dec 3–6